Guess we figured wrong in last night's Jazz-Laker game. Once again, it became a free-throw contest with the Lakers winning the game by 10. The Lakers made 35 free throws last night. That was not the difference as far as the total goes, the pace was slightly faster than we expected and the Lakers also shot 57% from the field. Congratulations to Kobe Bryant on his well-deserved MVP award!!
Tonight in the other Western Conference series, the Hornets visit the Spurs in San Antonio. I think we can look for a very tight game here defensively. We will just go with the under tonight with the total at 183. Our numbers say there should be about 176 scored in this game.
Hornets-Spurs Under 183
Record So Far: 49-29-3 Or 62.82%
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Handicapping The NBA Playoffs
So far this Playoff season, we have done pretty well with a record of 8-5-1. One thing I have noticed is that it takes a little more good fortune on your side to come out with a win. Once each series has begun, the linemakers adjust their numbers and no matter how good you are at handicapping the games, it just plain takes some grace from the handicapping gods to be successful. With totals, we are basically crunching numbers and if the two teams play to their trends and averages, our number will be very close to the final score. We also factor in other things like home-away, defensive strategies of the different teams, etc.
We know that over time, everything will trend toward the average, but in the Playoffs, there is so much more intensity on both sides of the ball, and much more at stake. For example, the Boston-Cleveland game last night had a total of 184 opening and was bet down to 182.5 by tip-off time. My numbers on that game were right below the line, so it was a no-play. The Celtics just about shut LeBron James down last night along with the rest of the Cavaliers who shot 30.7% from the field. The pace of the game was slightly lower than expected, but it was the terrible shooting percentage for both teams which is partly attributed to good defense, that caused the game to wind up 76-72.
There is no way to predict shooting percentage, of course. But we usually come very close to possessions per game, and with that, over time we will win more than we lose and that is the what the goal of being a successful handicapper is all about. It only takes about 53% winners betting the same units on each game to show a profit, and we are at over 63% for this NBA season. We will just keep plugging away with what we are doing and it's nice to know that over the long run we will come out ahead of the books.
We know that over time, everything will trend toward the average, but in the Playoffs, there is so much more intensity on both sides of the ball, and much more at stake. For example, the Boston-Cleveland game last night had a total of 184 opening and was bet down to 182.5 by tip-off time. My numbers on that game were right below the line, so it was a no-play. The Celtics just about shut LeBron James down last night along with the rest of the Cavaliers who shot 30.7% from the field. The pace of the game was slightly lower than expected, but it was the terrible shooting percentage for both teams which is partly attributed to good defense, that caused the game to wind up 76-72.
There is no way to predict shooting percentage, of course. But we usually come very close to possessions per game, and with that, over time we will win more than we lose and that is the what the goal of being a successful handicapper is all about. It only takes about 53% winners betting the same units on each game to show a profit, and we are at over 63% for this NBA season. We will just keep plugging away with what we are doing and it's nice to know that over the long run we will come out ahead of the books.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
NBA Playoffs Utah-LA. Wednesday Lakers Free Selection
We dropped one last night as the Orlando-Detroit game got over the total. They scored 58 points in the first quarter and had 64 in the third quarter and the game only went over by 8 points, go figure. We are still hitting at a fantastic 63.63% this season Not bad at all.
Tomorrow night, the Jazz and Lakers battle in game two of their second round series. We had the under on Sunday when the total was 213. The Lakers had 46 free throw attempts and made 38 of them and the game still went under, landing on 207. The linemaker has adjusted the total down some to 211 but we still see Wednesday's game going under. Hopefully, the Jazz will adjust and not commit so many fouls tomorrow. We have this game in the mid to high 190's so we will still go with the under even though the total is two points lower.
Jazz-Lakers Under 211
Sports Selections So Far: 49-28-3 Or 63.63%
Tomorrow night, the Jazz and Lakers battle in game two of their second round series. We had the under on Sunday when the total was 213. The Lakers had 46 free throw attempts and made 38 of them and the game still went under, landing on 207. The linemaker has adjusted the total down some to 211 but we still see Wednesday's game going under. Hopefully, the Jazz will adjust and not commit so many fouls tomorrow. We have this game in the mid to high 190's so we will still go with the under even though the total is two points lower.
Jazz-Lakers Under 211
Sports Selections So Far: 49-28-3 Or 63.63%
Monday, May 5, 2008
NBA Playoffs Monday May 5th- Free Selection
We grabbed another winner yesterday with our selection on the under in the Utah-Los Angeles game. The Lakers took it to the Jazz pretty good and the game was more lopsided than the final score would indicate. The Jazz shot under 38% from the floor and were only 4 of 19 from three-point range. Look for the linemaker to adjust the total on their next game, bringing it down some.
Tonight the Magic and Pistons hook up for the second game of their round two series in Detroit. The Pistons totally dominated Dwight Howard in game one, and according to what I am hearing, they will do the same tonight. The will continue to show him different looks on defense and try to take the Magic out of their offense.
I see the same kind of result tonight as in game one. The total is at 185. I have this game winding up somewhere in the mid-170's. Recommendation: Under.
Magic-Pistons Under 185
Sports Selections So Far: 49-27-3 Or 64.47%
Tonight the Magic and Pistons hook up for the second game of their round two series in Detroit. The Pistons totally dominated Dwight Howard in game one, and according to what I am hearing, they will do the same tonight. The will continue to show him different looks on defense and try to take the Magic out of their offense.
I see the same kind of result tonight as in game one. The total is at 185. I have this game winding up somewhere in the mid-170's. Recommendation: Under.
Magic-Pistons Under 185
Sports Selections So Far: 49-27-3 Or 64.47%
Sunday, May 4, 2008
NBA Playoffs Sunday Jazz-Lakers
Today the second round playoff series between Utah and Los Angeles begins in L.A. This should be a good series, although the Lakers would seem to have an advantage here having been rested and waiting for the Jazz to finish off Houston in a hard-fought 6 game series. On paper, this might seem to be a high-scoring, fast-paced type of matchup, but I see it being more of a defensive chess game.
The Lakers were able to hold the Nuggets to aboout 105 points a game in their series. The Nuggets averaged over 110 points a game throughout the regular season. The Jazz have just finished beating Houston in the first round holding them to just over an average of 87 points per game. I'm thinking that both teams will have their focus on defense in this series, at least until they have had time to feel each other out some and design their offensive strategy. The Lakers are rested since their series ended last Monday and this should give them an advantage on the defensive end of the court. Going to go with the under with the total at 213.
Jazz-Lakers Under 213
Sports Selections So Far: 48-27-3 or 63.99%
The Lakers were able to hold the Nuggets to aboout 105 points a game in their series. The Nuggets averaged over 110 points a game throughout the regular season. The Jazz have just finished beating Houston in the first round holding them to just over an average of 87 points per game. I'm thinking that both teams will have their focus on defense in this series, at least until they have had time to feel each other out some and design their offensive strategy. The Lakers are rested since their series ended last Monday and this should give them an advantage on the defensive end of the court. Going to go with the under with the total at 213.
Jazz-Lakers Under 213
Sports Selections So Far: 48-27-3 or 63.99%
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Big Brown Impressive In Derby Win
Well, to say the least, I was wrong about Big Brown. What a performance today in The Kentucky Derby. He wasn't able to make the lead in the early going and he was stuck four wide around the first turn but he was just too good for this field. He made his move around the far turn, still four wide and just overwhelmed the field to draw off and win easy. My selection, Colonel John was way too far back early in the race and never really had a chance although he did make a move around the turn, then he just hung..badly.
It is great to see a horse like this perform like that. With only three starts coming into the Derby and to overcome the obstacle of the far outside post to absolutely overpower the field, this is a genuine Triple Crown candidate if I ever saw one, and I have been watching for almost 40 years.
On a sad note, the filly who ran second, Eight Belles fractured both front ankles after the race while pulling up and had to be destroyed. God, I hate to see that. She put in one helluva effort and beat 18 colts only to have that happen . What a shame.
Hats off to Big Brown and his connections. What a performance!! See you at Pimlico in two weeks.
It is great to see a horse like this perform like that. With only three starts coming into the Derby and to overcome the obstacle of the far outside post to absolutely overpower the field, this is a genuine Triple Crown candidate if I ever saw one, and I have been watching for almost 40 years.
On a sad note, the filly who ran second, Eight Belles fractured both front ankles after the race while pulling up and had to be destroyed. God, I hate to see that. She put in one helluva effort and beat 18 colts only to have that happen . What a shame.
Hats off to Big Brown and his connections. What a performance!! See you at Pimlico in two weeks.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Kentucky Derby Tomorrow-Our Selection
Tomorrow is the running of the 134th Kentucky Derby, the day that everybody is a horseplayer. Our selection in Colonel John. He is coming off a powerful performance in the Santa Anita Derby in which, after closing in the stretch to win against some pretty slow fractions- he wasn't passing tired horses, he galloped out strong after the race and I think he will bring a huge effort tomorrow.
Big Brown is the morning line favorite but I do not like his post at all. The owners and trainers decided to take the 20 hole when they were limited to choosing from 18,19, or 20. Their thinking was that at least Big Brown would not have anybody outside of him in the run to the first turn. I think his problems will begin early as there is some good early speed breaking right next to him in the form of Gayego and Cowboy Cal. Unless Big Brown can clear the field and get all the way over to at least the 2 or 3 path, he is going to have one wide trip, lose tons of ground and expend alot of energy before he even reaches the backstretch.
Colonel John has tactical speed and can be sitting just off the pace or 6 or 7 lengths behind the leaders depending on the way the race plays out. I like that fact that the veteran Corey Nakatani is riding, he should have him in a striking position turning for home. As long as he avoids traffic trouble, he should be right there at the finish. Much has been said about the fact that Colonel John has not raced on dirt yet as all of his starts have come on synthetic surfaces, but I think he will adapt just fine and turn in a huge performance tomorrow.
Going to also bet an exacta box on Colonel John and Z Fortune
Enjoy the Derby!!
Big Brown is the morning line favorite but I do not like his post at all. The owners and trainers decided to take the 20 hole when they were limited to choosing from 18,19, or 20. Their thinking was that at least Big Brown would not have anybody outside of him in the run to the first turn. I think his problems will begin early as there is some good early speed breaking right next to him in the form of Gayego and Cowboy Cal. Unless Big Brown can clear the field and get all the way over to at least the 2 or 3 path, he is going to have one wide trip, lose tons of ground and expend alot of energy before he even reaches the backstretch.
Colonel John has tactical speed and can be sitting just off the pace or 6 or 7 lengths behind the leaders depending on the way the race plays out. I like that fact that the veteran Corey Nakatani is riding, he should have him in a striking position turning for home. As long as he avoids traffic trouble, he should be right there at the finish. Much has been said about the fact that Colonel John has not raced on dirt yet as all of his starts have come on synthetic surfaces, but I think he will adapt just fine and turn in a huge performance tomorrow.
Going to also bet an exacta box on Colonel John and Z Fortune
Enjoy the Derby!!
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