Our free selection today goes at Philly in the seventh race. We are going with #5, Flashy Boo. He makes his second start off of a long layoff and looks like he should be ready to pop today.
7th Race Philadelphia Park- #5 Flashy Boo
Showing posts with label handicapping. Show all posts
Showing posts with label handicapping. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Monday, March 15, 2010
Free Selection-Philly Park For Monday March 15th
Today we will head over to Philly Park for our free selection. In race five, we are going with #9 Zurs. Should get a decent price on this one who ships in from Maryland.
Philadelphia Park- Race 5-#9 Zurs
Philadelphia Park- Race 5-#9 Zurs
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Santa Anita-Free Selection For Sunday March 14th
Today we will give out a free selection over at Santa Anita..We are going with Warren's Concept in the seventh race, a maiden claiming affair for three year-olds going 6 1/2 furlongs over the synthetic..
This guy showed much improved speed in his last start and we think he could take this field wire to wire today..Silvio Amador is capable in this spot and should keep the odds up a little..
Santa Anita- 7th Race: #5-Warren's Concept
This guy showed much improved speed in his last start and we think he could take this field wire to wire today..Silvio Amador is capable in this spot and should keep the odds up a little..
Santa Anita- 7th Race: #5-Warren's Concept
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Free Selection For Sunday January 10th
Over at Santa Anita today our free selection goes in the 8th race..Taking Evening Jewel here with Victor Espinosa...
Santa Anita 8th Race: Evening Jewel
Santa Anita 8th Race: Evening Jewel
Monday, December 28, 2009
Free Selection For Monday 12/28
Today's freebie comes in the 8th race, The Eddie Logan Stakes. We are making a win bet on number 1, Alfarabi here.
8th Race #1-Alfarabi
8th Race #1-Alfarabi
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Free Selection For Sunday 12/27
Over to the 5th race at Santa Anita today for the daily free selection. This is a one mile turf event, optional claiming $32,000. A very wide open race here and we will take a shot with #8, Big Wig. This is his second start off of a year long layoff and he ran decent in his comebacker on December 4th. We will use him in the exotics along with a small win bet.
Santa Anita 5th Race: #8 Big Wig
Santa Anita 5th Race: #8 Big Wig
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Santa Anita Free Selection For 12/26
Today is opening day at Santa Anita and we hope to see some more competitive fields over here. Today's free selection comes in the 8th race on the program, the La Brea Stakes.
Going with the number 4 in here, Amazed By Grace with Go Go. Let's just hope that we get the 6-1 price that she is on the morning line.
Santa Anita Race 8-#4 Amazed By Grace
Going with the number 4 in here, Amazed By Grace with Go Go. Let's just hope that we get the 6-1 price that she is on the morning line.
Santa Anita Race 8-#4 Amazed By Grace
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Hollywood Park Free Selection For 12/20
Today, we go to the fifth race over at Hollywood Park which closes after today for the holiday break. This is an optional claimer for fillies 3 and up going 6 furlongs on the turf.
Our selection here is the number 5 horse, A Jealous Woman. She broke her maiden last time out over the same layout after a four month layoff. Joe Talamo stays with her for this one and she has been training well for this, her first start against winners. Bill Spawr is hot right now with a 32% win rate from 19 starters. Let's see if we can end the meet with another winner.
Hollywood Park Race 5-Number 4 A Jealous Woman
Our selection here is the number 5 horse, A Jealous Woman. She broke her maiden last time out over the same layout after a four month layoff. Joe Talamo stays with her for this one and she has been training well for this, her first start against winners. Bill Spawr is hot right now with a 32% win rate from 19 starters. Let's see if we can end the meet with another winner.
Hollywood Park Race 5-Number 4 A Jealous Woman
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Hollywood Park Free Selection For 12/10/09
We finally broke through yesterday with Quoted in the sixth race paying $11.00 to win. Let's try to make it two in a row today with another nice priced horse.
Today's third race has only six entrants, and I will take a stand against the morning line favorites here. These are two-year olds going two turns, and I like the #1 horse, Ballerina Angel. I see this filly up close early or maybe even leading as she exits a couple of sprint preps for this race. Let's see if we can steal one here.
Hollywood Race #3-Ballerina Angel
Today's third race has only six entrants, and I will take a stand against the morning line favorites here. These are two-year olds going two turns, and I like the #1 horse, Ballerina Angel. I see this filly up close early or maybe even leading as she exits a couple of sprint preps for this race. Let's see if we can steal one here.
Hollywood Race #3-Ballerina Angel
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Hollywood Park Free Selection For 12/3
Today's 5th race looks to offer some value and we are going with #7 Dreamalong here. The Julio Canani barn is red hot right now and this girl has had a nice prep race and two strong works after a short layoff.
Hollywood 5th race: #7-Dreamalong
Hollywood 5th race: #7-Dreamalong
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Hollywood Park Free Selection For Sunday 11/29
Today, the Grass Festival continues over at Hollywood Park and we go to the 5th race, The Miesque Stakes for our free selection.
We are going to take a shot with the 2 horse, Camille C. She is sharp at the moment and tries turf for the first time, but we think she is a good fit in here, and at 12-1 on the morning line, she may offer some value in the exotics as well. We also get the hot-riding Joe Talamo with her.
5th Race-Hollywood...#2 Camille C.
We are going to take a shot with the 2 horse, Camille C. She is sharp at the moment and tries turf for the first time, but we think she is a good fit in here, and at 12-1 on the morning line, she may offer some value in the exotics as well. We also get the hot-riding Joe Talamo with her.
5th Race-Hollywood...#2 Camille C.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Hollywood Park Free Selection For 11/26/09
We got scratched yesterday and will try again with a play in the 5th race today. Going to use the number 4 horse, Fitzmo. This horse returns from a long layoff and is showing some sharp workouts. Garrett Gomez will ride and should have him in the perfect spot stalking just behind the speed here.
Don't forget about the early post time today..Happy Thanksgiving!
Hollywood 5th Race-#4 Fitzmo
Don't forget about the early post time today..Happy Thanksgiving!
Hollywood 5th Race-#4 Fitzmo
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Hollywood Park Free Selection For 11/25
Today we go to the sixth race, a maiden race for 2 year old fillies going one mile on the grass. We are going with number 2, On The Cover. She makes her second career start here and has two works, one of them at 7 furlongs since her debut on November 1st. Joel Rosario rides today and this filly should make a good showing of herself.
Hollywood 6th Race-#2 On The Cover
Hollywood 6th Race-#2 On The Cover
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Handicapping: Trip Notes And Track Bias
One of the ways you can get a jump on the competition (the other bettors at the track and simulcast locations), is to keep accurate, detailed records of the things that you see during the running of the races.
We call these "Trip Notes" and what they consist of are notations that you can make during or after the race. These notations can be made when you see a horse experience some kind of trouble during the running of the race or at the start. Look for things especially that are not too obvious as the most obvious incidents will be also be noted by your competition, the other astute handicappers in the crowd. One of the things I like to look for are a bad start, then the horse makes a strong middle move during the race on the backstretch and gets into contention, then falls back late. If this horse comes back within a 14 day period, I give it a strong chance next time out.
Also, look for horses in a sprint race that make a fast move of any kind during the middle of the race, especially those races which are the first or second races after a layoff. When they are stretched out next time to a route race and have proven that they can win routing, they deserve a second look. This signifies that the horse is fit and competitive and is ready to win if the trainer is smart enough to place him at the right class level and distance next time out.
Another way to gain an advantage over the crowd is to take note of track bias when it occurs. You can take a look at the charts for each day or watch the replays and take note of any trend toward a certain running style as far as the winners are concerned. If all or most of the winners for that day led or were very close to the pace, the track may have been favoring speed. This is true especially if there were a couple of long shot winners that day that got loose on the lead and were aided by the bias. You can also note where on the track the winners were running; inside or outside. If a horse was making a strong move but came very wide into the stretch against a bias that favored inside early speed, he may be worth an extra look next time out. You can develop a nice "Horses to Watch" list from this method that works well and gives you an advantage when looking at their upcoming races.
You should still apply your other handicapping principles to the races when these horses return, but these two methods will help you uncover some nice winners that the crowd may overlook because they did not do the extra work of taking trip notes and checking for biases.
We call these "Trip Notes" and what they consist of are notations that you can make during or after the race. These notations can be made when you see a horse experience some kind of trouble during the running of the race or at the start. Look for things especially that are not too obvious as the most obvious incidents will be also be noted by your competition, the other astute handicappers in the crowd. One of the things I like to look for are a bad start, then the horse makes a strong middle move during the race on the backstretch and gets into contention, then falls back late. If this horse comes back within a 14 day period, I give it a strong chance next time out.
Also, look for horses in a sprint race that make a fast move of any kind during the middle of the race, especially those races which are the first or second races after a layoff. When they are stretched out next time to a route race and have proven that they can win routing, they deserve a second look. This signifies that the horse is fit and competitive and is ready to win if the trainer is smart enough to place him at the right class level and distance next time out.
Another way to gain an advantage over the crowd is to take note of track bias when it occurs. You can take a look at the charts for each day or watch the replays and take note of any trend toward a certain running style as far as the winners are concerned. If all or most of the winners for that day led or were very close to the pace, the track may have been favoring speed. This is true especially if there were a couple of long shot winners that day that got loose on the lead and were aided by the bias. You can also note where on the track the winners were running; inside or outside. If a horse was making a strong move but came very wide into the stretch against a bias that favored inside early speed, he may be worth an extra look next time out. You can develop a nice "Horses to Watch" list from this method that works well and gives you an advantage when looking at their upcoming races.
You should still apply your other handicapping principles to the races when these horses return, but these two methods will help you uncover some nice winners that the crowd may overlook because they did not do the extra work of taking trip notes and checking for biases.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Churchill Free Selection For Thursday June 18th
We keep getting scratched with our free selection here. Happened again yesterday at Monmouth. Our free pick for today goes at Churchill in the 8th race and it is number 4-Morakami who is listed at 5-1 on the morning line. Let's hope this one goes today.
8th Race Churchill Downs-Number 4 Morakami
8th Race Churchill Downs-Number 4 Morakami
Labels:
churchill downs,
free selections,
handicapping,
horses
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Free Selection For Wednesday June 17th
We will head over to Monmouth today with our freebie. In the 8th race, we will take a shot with number 7, Aspiring Nick. He is working sharp for this, his second race off a layoff since October and we think he will be right there today.
Monmouth-Race 8-#7 Aspiring Nick
Monmouth-Race 8-#7 Aspiring Nick
Friday, June 12, 2009
Churchill Downs Free Selection
Our pick yesterday was scratched so we will forge ahead today by turning to the 9th at Churchill. We are going with Kiddari, number 8, who is listed at 6-1 on the morning line.
Churchill 9th Race: #8 Kiddari
Churchill 9th Race: #8 Kiddari
Labels:
churchill downs,
free selections,
handicapping,
horses
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Belmont Park Free Selection For June 11th
Over at Belmont in the 8th race, we have one going today. Our pick is number three, Dr. Smarty Jack. We like Christophe Clement's ability to place his maiden winners and there should be some value here. Also like Rajiv Maragh returning to ride this one. Should be live today.
Belmont 8th Race: Dr. Smarty Jack
Belmont 8th Race: Dr. Smarty Jack
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
2009 Belmont Stakes
We have almost reached the end of the Triple Crown series for 2009 with the Belmont Stakes to be run this Saturday. With all of the drama of whether Rachel Alexandra was going to run or not behind us now, we can concentrate on trying to find the winner of the race.
I will probably go with Chocolate Candy, the fifth place finisher in the Derby. He has a good turn of foot and will make his move on the turn for home, and with Garrett Gomez riding, I feel good about his chances. He is fresh since he has not run since the Derby, been working very good over the Belmont surface and I think his running style will fit like a glove in this race.
Mine That Bird will be far back early and unless he gets going sooner than he did in the Derby, I think his chances are compromised. Although Calvin Borel has been riding up a storm lately, he better time his move just right or the horse will come up short.
Charitable Man will be able to make the lead and if he gets away with slow fractions, he could wire the field. He should have company on the front end though and I am hoping for a decent pace for Chocolate Candy to run at.
Maybe an exacta key with Chocolate Candy over Mine That Bird and Charitable Man will do the trick..
I will probably go with Chocolate Candy, the fifth place finisher in the Derby. He has a good turn of foot and will make his move on the turn for home, and with Garrett Gomez riding, I feel good about his chances. He is fresh since he has not run since the Derby, been working very good over the Belmont surface and I think his running style will fit like a glove in this race.
Mine That Bird will be far back early and unless he gets going sooner than he did in the Derby, I think his chances are compromised. Although Calvin Borel has been riding up a storm lately, he better time his move just right or the horse will come up short.
Charitable Man will be able to make the lead and if he gets away with slow fractions, he could wire the field. He should have company on the front end though and I am hoping for a decent pace for Chocolate Candy to run at.
Maybe an exacta key with Chocolate Candy over Mine That Bird and Charitable Man will do the trick..
Labels:
Belmont Stakes,
chocolate candy,
handicapping,
horses
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Hollywood Park Free Selection
Today we are going with one in the sixth race. The horse is number 3, Wineshine. Aaron Gryder takes the call for Craig Lewis who recently claimed this horse. Lewis does well first after the claim and has a high win percentage when using Gryder.
Race 6- #3 Wineshine
Race 6- #3 Wineshine
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