Today, the Grass Festival continues over at Hollywood Park and we go to the 5th race, The Miesque Stakes for our free selection.
We are going to take a shot with the 2 horse, Camille C. She is sharp at the moment and tries turf for the first time, but we think she is a good fit in here, and at 12-1 on the morning line, she may offer some value in the exotics as well. We also get the hot-riding Joe Talamo with her.
5th Race-Hollywood...#2 Camille C.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Hollywood Park Free Selection For 11/26/09
We got scratched yesterday and will try again with a play in the 5th race today. Going to use the number 4 horse, Fitzmo. This horse returns from a long layoff and is showing some sharp workouts. Garrett Gomez will ride and should have him in the perfect spot stalking just behind the speed here.
Don't forget about the early post time today..Happy Thanksgiving!
Hollywood 5th Race-#4 Fitzmo
Don't forget about the early post time today..Happy Thanksgiving!
Hollywood 5th Race-#4 Fitzmo
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Hollywood Park Free Selection For 11/25
Today we go to the sixth race, a maiden race for 2 year old fillies going one mile on the grass. We are going with number 2, On The Cover. She makes her second career start here and has two works, one of them at 7 furlongs since her debut on November 1st. Joel Rosario rides today and this filly should make a good showing of herself.
Hollywood 6th Race-#2 On The Cover
Hollywood 6th Race-#2 On The Cover
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Handicapping: Trip Notes And Track Bias
One of the ways you can get a jump on the competition (the other bettors at the track and simulcast locations), is to keep accurate, detailed records of the things that you see during the running of the races.
We call these "Trip Notes" and what they consist of are notations that you can make during or after the race. These notations can be made when you see a horse experience some kind of trouble during the running of the race or at the start. Look for things especially that are not too obvious as the most obvious incidents will be also be noted by your competition, the other astute handicappers in the crowd. One of the things I like to look for are a bad start, then the horse makes a strong middle move during the race on the backstretch and gets into contention, then falls back late. If this horse comes back within a 14 day period, I give it a strong chance next time out.
Also, look for horses in a sprint race that make a fast move of any kind during the middle of the race, especially those races which are the first or second races after a layoff. When they are stretched out next time to a route race and have proven that they can win routing, they deserve a second look. This signifies that the horse is fit and competitive and is ready to win if the trainer is smart enough to place him at the right class level and distance next time out.
Another way to gain an advantage over the crowd is to take note of track bias when it occurs. You can take a look at the charts for each day or watch the replays and take note of any trend toward a certain running style as far as the winners are concerned. If all or most of the winners for that day led or were very close to the pace, the track may have been favoring speed. This is true especially if there were a couple of long shot winners that day that got loose on the lead and were aided by the bias. You can also note where on the track the winners were running; inside or outside. If a horse was making a strong move but came very wide into the stretch against a bias that favored inside early speed, he may be worth an extra look next time out. You can develop a nice "Horses to Watch" list from this method that works well and gives you an advantage when looking at their upcoming races.
You should still apply your other handicapping principles to the races when these horses return, but these two methods will help you uncover some nice winners that the crowd may overlook because they did not do the extra work of taking trip notes and checking for biases.
We call these "Trip Notes" and what they consist of are notations that you can make during or after the race. These notations can be made when you see a horse experience some kind of trouble during the running of the race or at the start. Look for things especially that are not too obvious as the most obvious incidents will be also be noted by your competition, the other astute handicappers in the crowd. One of the things I like to look for are a bad start, then the horse makes a strong middle move during the race on the backstretch and gets into contention, then falls back late. If this horse comes back within a 14 day period, I give it a strong chance next time out.
Also, look for horses in a sprint race that make a fast move of any kind during the middle of the race, especially those races which are the first or second races after a layoff. When they are stretched out next time to a route race and have proven that they can win routing, they deserve a second look. This signifies that the horse is fit and competitive and is ready to win if the trainer is smart enough to place him at the right class level and distance next time out.
Another way to gain an advantage over the crowd is to take note of track bias when it occurs. You can take a look at the charts for each day or watch the replays and take note of any trend toward a certain running style as far as the winners are concerned. If all or most of the winners for that day led or were very close to the pace, the track may have been favoring speed. This is true especially if there were a couple of long shot winners that day that got loose on the lead and were aided by the bias. You can also note where on the track the winners were running; inside or outside. If a horse was making a strong move but came very wide into the stretch against a bias that favored inside early speed, he may be worth an extra look next time out. You can develop a nice "Horses to Watch" list from this method that works well and gives you an advantage when looking at their upcoming races.
You should still apply your other handicapping principles to the races when these horses return, but these two methods will help you uncover some nice winners that the crowd may overlook because they did not do the extra work of taking trip notes and checking for biases.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Churchill Free Selection For Thursday June 18th
We keep getting scratched with our free selection here. Happened again yesterday at Monmouth. Our free pick for today goes at Churchill in the 8th race and it is number 4-Morakami who is listed at 5-1 on the morning line. Let's hope this one goes today.
8th Race Churchill Downs-Number 4 Morakami
8th Race Churchill Downs-Number 4 Morakami
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Free Selection For Wednesday June 17th
We will head over to Monmouth today with our freebie. In the 8th race, we will take a shot with number 7, Aspiring Nick. He is working sharp for this, his second race off a layoff since October and we think he will be right there today.
Monmouth-Race 8-#7 Aspiring Nick
Monmouth-Race 8-#7 Aspiring Nick
Monday, June 15, 2009
Philly Park 9th Race Monday
Today's free pick is in the ninth race over at Philadelphia Park. We are going with number five- Cardashi.
Our last free selection, Kiddari, was scratched out on Friday at Churchill but came back the next day to win at $10.00. Hope you were able to catch that one. I was busy competing in a qualifier for the DRF NHC here in Vegas..
Philadelphia Park 9th Race: #5 Cardashi
Thanks for reading.
Our last free selection, Kiddari, was scratched out on Friday at Churchill but came back the next day to win at $10.00. Hope you were able to catch that one. I was busy competing in a qualifier for the DRF NHC here in Vegas..
Philadelphia Park 9th Race: #5 Cardashi
Thanks for reading.
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