Handicapping: Trip Notes And Track Bias

One of the ways you can get a jump on the competition (the other bettors at the track and simulcast locations), is to keep accurate, detailed records of the things that you see during the running of the races.

We call these "Trip Notes" and what they consist of are notations that you can make during or after the race. These notations can be made when you see a horse experience some kind of trouble during the running of the race or at the start. Look for things especially that are not too obvious as the most obvious incidents will be also be noted by your competition, the other astute handicappers in the crowd. One of the things I like to look for are a bad start, then the horse makes a strong middle move during the race on the backstretch and gets into contention, then falls back late. If this horse comes back within a 14 day period, I give it a strong chance next time out.

Also, look for horses in a sprint race that make a fast move of any kind during the middle of the race, especially those races which are the first or second races after a layoff. When they are stretched out next time to a route race and have proven that they can win routing, they deserve a second look. This signifies that the horse is fit and competitive and is ready to win if the trainer is smart enough to place him at the right class level and distance next time out.

Another way to gain an advantage over the crowd is to take note of track bias when it occurs. You can take a look at the charts for each day or watch the replays and take note of any trend toward a certain running style as far as the winners are concerned. If all or most of the winners for that day led or were very close to the pace, the track may have been favoring speed. This is true especially if there were a couple of long shot winners that day that got loose on the lead and were aided by the bias. You can also note where on the track the winners were running; inside or outside. If a horse was making a strong move but came very wide into the stretch against a bias that favored inside early speed, he may be worth an extra look next time out. You can develop a nice "Horses to Watch" list from this method that works well and gives you an advantage when looking at their upcoming races.

You should still apply your other handicapping principles to the races when these horses return, but these two methods will help you uncover some nice winners that the crowd may overlook because they did not do the extra work of taking trip notes and checking for biases.

Churchill Free Selection For Thursday June 18th

We keep getting scratched with our free selection here. Happened again yesterday at Monmouth. Our free pick for today goes at Churchill in the 8th race and it is number 4-Morakami who is listed at 5-1 on the morning line. Let's hope this one goes today.


8th Race Churchill Downs-Number 4 Morakami

Free Selection For Wednesday June 17th

We will head over to Monmouth today with our freebie. In the 8th race, we will take a shot with number 7, Aspiring Nick. He is working sharp for this, his second race off a layoff since October and we think he will be right there today.

Monmouth-Race 8-#7 Aspiring Nick

Philly Park 9th Race Monday

Today's free pick is in the ninth race over at Philadelphia Park. We are going with number five- Cardashi.

Our last free selection, Kiddari, was scratched out on Friday at Churchill but came back the next day to win at $10.00. Hope you were able to catch that one. I was busy competing in a qualifier for the DRF NHC here in Vegas..

Philadelphia Park 9th Race: #5 Cardashi

Thanks for reading.

Churchill Downs Free Selection

Our pick yesterday was scratched so we will forge ahead today by turning to the 9th at Churchill. We are going with Kiddari, number 8, who is listed at 6-1 on the morning line.


Churchill 9th Race: #8 Kiddari

Belmont Park Free Selection For June 11th

Over at Belmont in the 8th race, we have one going today. Our pick is number three, Dr. Smarty Jack. We like Christophe Clement's ability to place his maiden winners and there should be some value here. Also like Rajiv Maragh returning to ride this one. Should be live today.

Belmont 8th Race: Dr. Smarty Jack

2009 Belmont Stakes

We have almost reached the end of the Triple Crown series for 2009 with the Belmont Stakes to be run this Saturday. With all of the drama of whether Rachel Alexandra was going to run or not behind us now, we can concentrate on trying to find the winner of the race.

I will probably go with Chocolate Candy, the fifth place finisher in the Derby. He has a good turn of foot and will make his move on the turn for home, and with Garrett Gomez riding, I feel good about his chances. He is fresh since he has not run since the Derby, been working very good over the Belmont surface and I think his running style will fit like a glove in this race.

Mine That Bird will be far back early and unless he gets going sooner than he did in the Derby, I think his chances are compromised. Although Calvin Borel has been riding up a storm lately, he better time his move just right or the horse will come up short.

Charitable Man will be able to make the lead and if he gets away with slow fractions, he could wire the field. He should have company on the front end though and I am hoping for a decent pace for Chocolate Candy to run at.

Maybe an exacta key with Chocolate Candy over Mine That Bird and Charitable Man will do the trick..