Going well over here at vegasturfandsports.com this past week. Our members have been treated to some nice wins, especially on the horse racing side. We had two nice winners at Hollywood Park over the long weekend. One on Friday night which paid $13.20 to win, and one on Monday which returned $12.20.
Tonight's game between the Pistons and Celtics looks very much like a play on the under with the total at 173.5. This series has grown in defensive intensity over the last couple of games and we see this game tonight as another slow, halfcourt battle with the focus on defense. Boston has regained home court advantage with their win in Detroit on Saturday and this is a must-win for them before heading back to Detroit for game 6. We have this game in the mid to low 160's. Recommendation: UNDER
Pistons-Celtics Under 173.5
Record: 57-33-3 (63.33%)-- Plus 22.45 Units
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Baseball Free Selection For Saturday May 24th
Our members at vegasturfandsports.com have been doing well with our selections. We had a nice winner at Hollywood Park last night in the third race. The horse, Mikey Bones won and paid $13.20 to win. Our baseball selections at vegasturfandsports went 1-1 yesterday for a net unit loss of .10, not a bad day overall...
Today, Randy Johnson takes the mound against the Braves in Atlanta. The total is at 9 under $1.15 right now and we are taking the under here. The big lefty has been pitching well, especially on the road of late and the Braves have been struggling against left handers. Both teams have excellent bullpens and this should be a low-scoring affair.
Feel free to browse our site and check out the very affordable plans that we have for daily selections. We do not provide a large quantity of picks every day, but strive to win a high percentage of very select plays. We aim to provide an honest, high quality service to our members and we stress the word "service". We usually have at least 2 or 3 highly rated picks each day, sometimes only one, but that is the difference between us and most handicapping services. We aim for a high percentage of cashed tickets rather than a large volume of picks that hit at a much lower percentage.
Arizona-Atlanta Under 9 -$1.15
Free Selections So Far: 55-33-3 (62.22%) --Plus 20.45 Units
Visit Our Website: www.vegasturfandsports.com
Today, Randy Johnson takes the mound against the Braves in Atlanta. The total is at 9 under $1.15 right now and we are taking the under here. The big lefty has been pitching well, especially on the road of late and the Braves have been struggling against left handers. Both teams have excellent bullpens and this should be a low-scoring affair.
Feel free to browse our site and check out the very affordable plans that we have for daily selections. We do not provide a large quantity of picks every day, but strive to win a high percentage of very select plays. We aim to provide an honest, high quality service to our members and we stress the word "service". We usually have at least 2 or 3 highly rated picks each day, sometimes only one, but that is the difference between us and most handicapping services. We aim for a high percentage of cashed tickets rather than a large volume of picks that hit at a much lower percentage.
Arizona-Atlanta Under 9 -$1.15
Free Selections So Far: 55-33-3 (62.22%) --Plus 20.45 Units
Visit Our Website: www.vegasturfandsports.com
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Free Sports Selections Thursday May23rd
We got blown out in one inning last night as the Phillies put up eight runs in the sixth inning putting the game way over the total. Tonight we go with two games. We like the under in the Mets-Braves game, the total is at 8, minus $1.20. The second game is the Phillies vs. Astros game where we are going with the under. The total there is at 9.5, minus $1.20.
Mets-Braves Under 8 -$1.20
Phillies-Astros Under 9.5 -$1.20
Record: Plus 20.75 Units On Free Plays
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www.vegasturfandsports.com
Mets-Braves Under 8 -$1.20
Phillies-Astros Under 9.5 -$1.20
Record: Plus 20.75 Units On Free Plays
Visit Our Website For A Full Selection Of Sports Plays
www.vegasturfandsports.com
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Free Selection For Wednesday May 21st
We hit our game last night with the Mets-Braves second game staying under the total. We are plus 21.85 units since the beginning of 2008, with a record of 53-31-3 across the board.
Tonight, we are going with the under in the Phillies-Nationals game. These two teams are really struggling to score runs right now and we see that continuing tonight. Both teams have good bullpens if the starters get in trouble, combined with the low run production of late of both of these teams should keep it under the total of 9.5.
Phillies-Nationals Under 9.5 -1.10
Our Record: 53-31-3 (63.09%) Plus 21.85 Units
Tonight, we are going with the under in the Phillies-Nationals game. These two teams are really struggling to score runs right now and we see that continuing tonight. Both teams have good bullpens if the starters get in trouble, combined with the low run production of late of both of these teams should keep it under the total of 9.5.
Phillies-Nationals Under 9.5 -1.10
Our Record: 53-31-3 (63.09%) Plus 21.85 Units
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Free Selection Tuesday May 20th
Lost our bet last night on the over in the Chicago-Houston game. They scored 9 and the total was 9.5, the Cubs scoring 7 of the nine runs, continue to produce offensively.
We try again today with the Mets-Braves game. The Mets visit Atlanta and the total is set at 10 in the second game of a doubleheader. We like the under in this one with the line at minus $1.10.
Mets-Braves Under 10 -$1.10
Sports Selections So Far 52-31-3 Or 62.65%-Plus 20.85 Units
We try again today with the Mets-Braves game. The Mets visit Atlanta and the total is set at 10 in the second game of a doubleheader. We like the under in this one with the line at minus $1.10.
Mets-Braves Under 10 -$1.10
Sports Selections So Far 52-31-3 Or 62.65%-Plus 20.85 Units
Monday, May 19, 2008
Cubs-Astros Monday May 19th
Going to post our first free baseball selection here. Tonight, the Cubs visit the Astros in Houston and we are interested in the total on this game. The total opened at 10, but has been bet down slightly to 9.5. Going to go with the over here. Like the chances that these two teams will combine for at least 10 runs.
Chicago Cubs-Houston Astros Over 9.5 -1.15
Sports Selections So Far 52-30-3(63.41%) + 22 Units
Chicago Cubs-Houston Astros Over 9.5 -1.15
Sports Selections So Far 52-30-3(63.41%) + 22 Units
Handicapping Websites
Wow! After recently deciding to publish a site on the web to market my services, I have notice while checking out the competition, that most of these "handicapping" sites are just a ripoff. I have read reviews on the different cappers and their sites, and it seems that 85% of what I read was negative. Why go through the trouble of handicapping games if all you care about is marketing and B.S. to sell your picks? Hmmm..maybe that is the problem, some of these "handicappers" do not even bother to actually provide the service that they advertise, they just try to market their name or theme, and hope for the best as far as picking games or horses for their customers.
I have worked in a non-related industry in recent years. It is a service-based type of business in which you market your products and services to people and businesses, hoping to keep them as customers long term. Why go through the effort of getting customers, only to provide shoddy service, lose them and the income that they provide and have them leave unhappy and remorseful?
There are some sites out there that have a place for people to go in and post reviews. Why would you risk the chance of being labled a ripoff "service"?
Why not just provide the best possible service that you can at an affordable price and build a large clientele? I would rather have 200 happy customers at a low price than 20 unhappy customers at a ridiculous price who will just leave anyway and possibly spread the word about you online and by word of mouth.
All you can do is to try and put your best effort forth when handicapping. The customer should realize that the idea is to win money over the long run and not what happened yesterday or last week. I think that a handicapping service could have a long and profitable life in business if they just followed that theory instead of just trying to "get their money" and move on to the next "live one".
My site-www.vegasturfandsports.com, is still under construction, I will be concentrating on that over the coming weeks, but will still try to post a free selection here once in awhile.
I have worked in a non-related industry in recent years. It is a service-based type of business in which you market your products and services to people and businesses, hoping to keep them as customers long term. Why go through the effort of getting customers, only to provide shoddy service, lose them and the income that they provide and have them leave unhappy and remorseful?
There are some sites out there that have a place for people to go in and post reviews. Why would you risk the chance of being labled a ripoff "service"?
Why not just provide the best possible service that you can at an affordable price and build a large clientele? I would rather have 200 happy customers at a low price than 20 unhappy customers at a ridiculous price who will just leave anyway and possibly spread the word about you online and by word of mouth.
All you can do is to try and put your best effort forth when handicapping. The customer should realize that the idea is to win money over the long run and not what happened yesterday or last week. I think that a handicapping service could have a long and profitable life in business if they just followed that theory instead of just trying to "get their money" and move on to the next "live one".
My site-www.vegasturfandsports.com, is still under construction, I will be concentrating on that over the coming weeks, but will still try to post a free selection here once in awhile.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Preakness Stakes Saturday
This Saturday, The Preakness Stakes will be run with Big Brown as the heavy favorite. Nobody here is going to go against him after watching the dominating performance that he put in at The Kentucky Derby.
The only wagering opportunity that may offer some value, is the exotics. There are some decent payoff potentials with putting Big Brown on top in exactas, trifectas and superfectas. If you think that somehow he might get beat, key him in the first and second spot. Gayego will probably be second choice, and he should be included in exotics. Other contenders are Kentucky Bear and Hey Byrn. Another longshot with an outside chance to finish in the top 4 is Racecar Rhapsody.
Enjoy the race. I will just root for Big Brown to win for what is probably our best shot at a Triple Crown winner in some time. Horse racing needs a hero, a superhorse to bring some much needed positive attention to the sport.
The only wagering opportunity that may offer some value, is the exotics. There are some decent payoff potentials with putting Big Brown on top in exactas, trifectas and superfectas. If you think that somehow he might get beat, key him in the first and second spot. Gayego will probably be second choice, and he should be included in exotics. Other contenders are Kentucky Bear and Hey Byrn. Another longshot with an outside chance to finish in the top 4 is Racecar Rhapsody.
Enjoy the race. I will just root for Big Brown to win for what is probably our best shot at a Triple Crown winner in some time. Horse racing needs a hero, a superhorse to bring some much needed positive attention to the sport.
Handicapping Totals In The NBA Playoffs
Since the beginning of 2008, we have a record of 52-30-3 with the free selections here at Vegas Turf And Sports, mostly picking totals on NBA games. The other night, we had the Pistons game under 186.5 and that game was played almost exactly the way we figured it would be with the Pistons hammering the Magic on defense and going on to take the series moving them into the Eastern Conference Finals. Final total on that game was 177, right where we had it.
We have noticed that when looking at some of these playoff matchups, there are some very different factors that go into trying to figure where the total on a game should be. For example, last night's games were Cleveland at Boston, and Utah at the Lakers. My number on the Boston game was in the low 170's with a total listed at 176.5 which may normally be a play on the under. The way the Celtics have played lately, we just could not pull the trigger on under in that game. Of course, they won a hard-fought victory last night, but the game went over the total. Looking at boxscores the next morning, it is easy to see what one of the major factors is during the playoffs and that is the number of free throws that are taken. Fouls seem to be a major factor much more so during the playoffs. Fouls stop the clock and give a team the opportunity to score points at the same time, which is going to affect the total on a game, for sure.
In the second game last night, the Jazz and the Lakers shot 70 free throws!! They made 58 of the 70 and the game only went over by a few points. Our number on that game was right around 200, but I made a note that these two teams had been at the line too many times during this series to warrant a play on the under. Hard to figure beforehand how the game will be called though, in other words, how much physical play will the referees allow or not allow?
The intensity of the playoffs brings more fouls, allowing for points scored with the clock stopped and this must be considered one of your handicapping factors when handicapping totals in the NBA playoffs.
We have noticed that when looking at some of these playoff matchups, there are some very different factors that go into trying to figure where the total on a game should be. For example, last night's games were Cleveland at Boston, and Utah at the Lakers. My number on the Boston game was in the low 170's with a total listed at 176.5 which may normally be a play on the under. The way the Celtics have played lately, we just could not pull the trigger on under in that game. Of course, they won a hard-fought victory last night, but the game went over the total. Looking at boxscores the next morning, it is easy to see what one of the major factors is during the playoffs and that is the number of free throws that are taken. Fouls seem to be a major factor much more so during the playoffs. Fouls stop the clock and give a team the opportunity to score points at the same time, which is going to affect the total on a game, for sure.
In the second game last night, the Jazz and the Lakers shot 70 free throws!! They made 58 of the 70 and the game only went over by a few points. Our number on that game was right around 200, but I made a note that these two teams had been at the line too many times during this series to warrant a play on the under. Hard to figure beforehand how the game will be called though, in other words, how much physical play will the referees allow or not allow?
The intensity of the playoffs brings more fouls, allowing for points scored with the clock stopped and this must be considered one of your handicapping factors when handicapping totals in the NBA playoffs.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
NBA Playoffs Tuesday Magic-Pistons
We pulled out the win last night with the Celtics-Cavaliers game. The Celtics played excellent defense which we expected but so did the Cavaliers. The Celtics continue to have a problem with winning on the road as they dropped this game last night 88-77. The Celts were held to a 12-point fourth quarter and shot 38.6% from the field. We cannot see the Celtics competing for the Championship if they continue to lose games on the road because if you lose one game at home, you take yourself right out of the series when you cannot win in the other team's building.
Tonight, the Pistons will try to end their series with the Orlando Magic. The Pistons probably see this as a must win game, and will pull out their best defense to close it out. They have a chance to finish off the Magic early, get some extra rest, and provide Chauncy Billips with some extra time to come back from his injury before the Eastern Finals get under way. The total is at 186.5 at the time of this writing. Reccomendation: Under
Magic-Pistons Under 186.5
Record So Far: 51-30-3 Or 62.96%
Tonight, the Pistons will try to end their series with the Orlando Magic. The Pistons probably see this as a must win game, and will pull out their best defense to close it out. They have a chance to finish off the Magic early, get some extra rest, and provide Chauncy Billips with some extra time to come back from his injury before the Eastern Finals get under way. The total is at 186.5 at the time of this writing. Reccomendation: Under
Magic-Pistons Under 186.5
Record So Far: 51-30-3 Or 62.96%
Monday, May 12, 2008
Monday May 12th Celtics-Cavaliers
Tonight, it's game four between these two in Cleveland. Sunday's game saw the Cavaliers come out on fire shooting the lights out and going up 31-13 at the end of the first quarter. For the game, the Cavs shot 53.6% from the floor including 10 of 19 from the 3 point line. The pace of the game was slow, as expected, the only reason for the total ending up at 192 was the Cavs shooting and 24 free-throws made to boot.
Tonight, we look for the Celtics to come out strong on defense early. They have to take the crowd out of it early and keep the Cavaliers from opening up a big lead like in game three. They have promised in the media that they will win this game and show that they can win on the road in the Playoffs. Reccomendation: Under
Celtics-Cavaliers Under 182
Record So Far: 50-30-3 Or 62.5%
Tonight, we look for the Celtics to come out strong on defense early. They have to take the crowd out of it early and keep the Cavaliers from opening up a big lead like in game three. They have promised in the media that they will win this game and show that they can win on the road in the Playoffs. Reccomendation: Under
Celtics-Cavaliers Under 182
Record So Far: 50-30-3 Or 62.5%
Saturday, May 10, 2008
NBA Playoffs Saturday May 10th
Tonight we are going to go with the under in the Detroit-Orlando game. I look for the Pistons to bounce back tonight and flex some defensive muscle, which is what they need to come out with a win. Tough to win on the road, especially in the Playoffs, and I think they know that they will have to take the crowd out of it early and force the Magic to play at a slower, more Detroit-like pace. Chauncy Billips is expected to play for the Pistons tonight. We are starting to look at Major League Baseball totals and we will be getting going on that as the NBA season winds down.
Pistons-Magic Under 187.5
Record So Far: 49-30-3 Or 62.02%
Pistons-Magic Under 187.5
Record So Far: 49-30-3 Or 62.02%
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Hornets-Spurs Thursday May 8th
Guess we figured wrong in last night's Jazz-Laker game. Once again, it became a free-throw contest with the Lakers winning the game by 10. The Lakers made 35 free throws last night. That was not the difference as far as the total goes, the pace was slightly faster than we expected and the Lakers also shot 57% from the field. Congratulations to Kobe Bryant on his well-deserved MVP award!!
Tonight in the other Western Conference series, the Hornets visit the Spurs in San Antonio. I think we can look for a very tight game here defensively. We will just go with the under tonight with the total at 183. Our numbers say there should be about 176 scored in this game.
Hornets-Spurs Under 183
Record So Far: 49-29-3 Or 62.82%
Tonight in the other Western Conference series, the Hornets visit the Spurs in San Antonio. I think we can look for a very tight game here defensively. We will just go with the under tonight with the total at 183. Our numbers say there should be about 176 scored in this game.
Hornets-Spurs Under 183
Record So Far: 49-29-3 Or 62.82%
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Handicapping The NBA Playoffs
So far this Playoff season, we have done pretty well with a record of 8-5-1. One thing I have noticed is that it takes a little more good fortune on your side to come out with a win. Once each series has begun, the linemakers adjust their numbers and no matter how good you are at handicapping the games, it just plain takes some grace from the handicapping gods to be successful. With totals, we are basically crunching numbers and if the two teams play to their trends and averages, our number will be very close to the final score. We also factor in other things like home-away, defensive strategies of the different teams, etc.
We know that over time, everything will trend toward the average, but in the Playoffs, there is so much more intensity on both sides of the ball, and much more at stake. For example, the Boston-Cleveland game last night had a total of 184 opening and was bet down to 182.5 by tip-off time. My numbers on that game were right below the line, so it was a no-play. The Celtics just about shut LeBron James down last night along with the rest of the Cavaliers who shot 30.7% from the field. The pace of the game was slightly lower than expected, but it was the terrible shooting percentage for both teams which is partly attributed to good defense, that caused the game to wind up 76-72.
There is no way to predict shooting percentage, of course. But we usually come very close to possessions per game, and with that, over time we will win more than we lose and that is the what the goal of being a successful handicapper is all about. It only takes about 53% winners betting the same units on each game to show a profit, and we are at over 63% for this NBA season. We will just keep plugging away with what we are doing and it's nice to know that over the long run we will come out ahead of the books.
We know that over time, everything will trend toward the average, but in the Playoffs, there is so much more intensity on both sides of the ball, and much more at stake. For example, the Boston-Cleveland game last night had a total of 184 opening and was bet down to 182.5 by tip-off time. My numbers on that game were right below the line, so it was a no-play. The Celtics just about shut LeBron James down last night along with the rest of the Cavaliers who shot 30.7% from the field. The pace of the game was slightly lower than expected, but it was the terrible shooting percentage for both teams which is partly attributed to good defense, that caused the game to wind up 76-72.
There is no way to predict shooting percentage, of course. But we usually come very close to possessions per game, and with that, over time we will win more than we lose and that is the what the goal of being a successful handicapper is all about. It only takes about 53% winners betting the same units on each game to show a profit, and we are at over 63% for this NBA season. We will just keep plugging away with what we are doing and it's nice to know that over the long run we will come out ahead of the books.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
NBA Playoffs Utah-LA. Wednesday Lakers Free Selection
We dropped one last night as the Orlando-Detroit game got over the total. They scored 58 points in the first quarter and had 64 in the third quarter and the game only went over by 8 points, go figure. We are still hitting at a fantastic 63.63% this season Not bad at all.
Tomorrow night, the Jazz and Lakers battle in game two of their second round series. We had the under on Sunday when the total was 213. The Lakers had 46 free throw attempts and made 38 of them and the game still went under, landing on 207. The linemaker has adjusted the total down some to 211 but we still see Wednesday's game going under. Hopefully, the Jazz will adjust and not commit so many fouls tomorrow. We have this game in the mid to high 190's so we will still go with the under even though the total is two points lower.
Jazz-Lakers Under 211
Sports Selections So Far: 49-28-3 Or 63.63%
Tomorrow night, the Jazz and Lakers battle in game two of their second round series. We had the under on Sunday when the total was 213. The Lakers had 46 free throw attempts and made 38 of them and the game still went under, landing on 207. The linemaker has adjusted the total down some to 211 but we still see Wednesday's game going under. Hopefully, the Jazz will adjust and not commit so many fouls tomorrow. We have this game in the mid to high 190's so we will still go with the under even though the total is two points lower.
Jazz-Lakers Under 211
Sports Selections So Far: 49-28-3 Or 63.63%
Monday, May 5, 2008
NBA Playoffs Monday May 5th- Free Selection
We grabbed another winner yesterday with our selection on the under in the Utah-Los Angeles game. The Lakers took it to the Jazz pretty good and the game was more lopsided than the final score would indicate. The Jazz shot under 38% from the floor and were only 4 of 19 from three-point range. Look for the linemaker to adjust the total on their next game, bringing it down some.
Tonight the Magic and Pistons hook up for the second game of their round two series in Detroit. The Pistons totally dominated Dwight Howard in game one, and according to what I am hearing, they will do the same tonight. The will continue to show him different looks on defense and try to take the Magic out of their offense.
I see the same kind of result tonight as in game one. The total is at 185. I have this game winding up somewhere in the mid-170's. Recommendation: Under.
Magic-Pistons Under 185
Sports Selections So Far: 49-27-3 Or 64.47%
Tonight the Magic and Pistons hook up for the second game of their round two series in Detroit. The Pistons totally dominated Dwight Howard in game one, and according to what I am hearing, they will do the same tonight. The will continue to show him different looks on defense and try to take the Magic out of their offense.
I see the same kind of result tonight as in game one. The total is at 185. I have this game winding up somewhere in the mid-170's. Recommendation: Under.
Magic-Pistons Under 185
Sports Selections So Far: 49-27-3 Or 64.47%
Sunday, May 4, 2008
NBA Playoffs Sunday Jazz-Lakers
Today the second round playoff series between Utah and Los Angeles begins in L.A. This should be a good series, although the Lakers would seem to have an advantage here having been rested and waiting for the Jazz to finish off Houston in a hard-fought 6 game series. On paper, this might seem to be a high-scoring, fast-paced type of matchup, but I see it being more of a defensive chess game.
The Lakers were able to hold the Nuggets to aboout 105 points a game in their series. The Nuggets averaged over 110 points a game throughout the regular season. The Jazz have just finished beating Houston in the first round holding them to just over an average of 87 points per game. I'm thinking that both teams will have their focus on defense in this series, at least until they have had time to feel each other out some and design their offensive strategy. The Lakers are rested since their series ended last Monday and this should give them an advantage on the defensive end of the court. Going to go with the under with the total at 213.
Jazz-Lakers Under 213
Sports Selections So Far: 48-27-3 or 63.99%
The Lakers were able to hold the Nuggets to aboout 105 points a game in their series. The Nuggets averaged over 110 points a game throughout the regular season. The Jazz have just finished beating Houston in the first round holding them to just over an average of 87 points per game. I'm thinking that both teams will have their focus on defense in this series, at least until they have had time to feel each other out some and design their offensive strategy. The Lakers are rested since their series ended last Monday and this should give them an advantage on the defensive end of the court. Going to go with the under with the total at 213.
Jazz-Lakers Under 213
Sports Selections So Far: 48-27-3 or 63.99%
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Big Brown Impressive In Derby Win
Well, to say the least, I was wrong about Big Brown. What a performance today in The Kentucky Derby. He wasn't able to make the lead in the early going and he was stuck four wide around the first turn but he was just too good for this field. He made his move around the far turn, still four wide and just overwhelmed the field to draw off and win easy. My selection, Colonel John was way too far back early in the race and never really had a chance although he did make a move around the turn, then he just hung..badly.
It is great to see a horse like this perform like that. With only three starts coming into the Derby and to overcome the obstacle of the far outside post to absolutely overpower the field, this is a genuine Triple Crown candidate if I ever saw one, and I have been watching for almost 40 years.
On a sad note, the filly who ran second, Eight Belles fractured both front ankles after the race while pulling up and had to be destroyed. God, I hate to see that. She put in one helluva effort and beat 18 colts only to have that happen . What a shame.
Hats off to Big Brown and his connections. What a performance!! See you at Pimlico in two weeks.
It is great to see a horse like this perform like that. With only three starts coming into the Derby and to overcome the obstacle of the far outside post to absolutely overpower the field, this is a genuine Triple Crown candidate if I ever saw one, and I have been watching for almost 40 years.
On a sad note, the filly who ran second, Eight Belles fractured both front ankles after the race while pulling up and had to be destroyed. God, I hate to see that. She put in one helluva effort and beat 18 colts only to have that happen . What a shame.
Hats off to Big Brown and his connections. What a performance!! See you at Pimlico in two weeks.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Kentucky Derby Tomorrow-Our Selection
Tomorrow is the running of the 134th Kentucky Derby, the day that everybody is a horseplayer. Our selection in Colonel John. He is coming off a powerful performance in the Santa Anita Derby in which, after closing in the stretch to win against some pretty slow fractions- he wasn't passing tired horses, he galloped out strong after the race and I think he will bring a huge effort tomorrow.
Big Brown is the morning line favorite but I do not like his post at all. The owners and trainers decided to take the 20 hole when they were limited to choosing from 18,19, or 20. Their thinking was that at least Big Brown would not have anybody outside of him in the run to the first turn. I think his problems will begin early as there is some good early speed breaking right next to him in the form of Gayego and Cowboy Cal. Unless Big Brown can clear the field and get all the way over to at least the 2 or 3 path, he is going to have one wide trip, lose tons of ground and expend alot of energy before he even reaches the backstretch.
Colonel John has tactical speed and can be sitting just off the pace or 6 or 7 lengths behind the leaders depending on the way the race plays out. I like that fact that the veteran Corey Nakatani is riding, he should have him in a striking position turning for home. As long as he avoids traffic trouble, he should be right there at the finish. Much has been said about the fact that Colonel John has not raced on dirt yet as all of his starts have come on synthetic surfaces, but I think he will adapt just fine and turn in a huge performance tomorrow.
Going to also bet an exacta box on Colonel John and Z Fortune
Enjoy the Derby!!
Big Brown is the morning line favorite but I do not like his post at all. The owners and trainers decided to take the 20 hole when they were limited to choosing from 18,19, or 20. Their thinking was that at least Big Brown would not have anybody outside of him in the run to the first turn. I think his problems will begin early as there is some good early speed breaking right next to him in the form of Gayego and Cowboy Cal. Unless Big Brown can clear the field and get all the way over to at least the 2 or 3 path, he is going to have one wide trip, lose tons of ground and expend alot of energy before he even reaches the backstretch.
Colonel John has tactical speed and can be sitting just off the pace or 6 or 7 lengths behind the leaders depending on the way the race plays out. I like that fact that the veteran Corey Nakatani is riding, he should have him in a striking position turning for home. As long as he avoids traffic trouble, he should be right there at the finish. Much has been said about the fact that Colonel John has not raced on dirt yet as all of his starts have come on synthetic surfaces, but I think he will adapt just fine and turn in a huge performance tomorrow.
Going to also bet an exacta box on Colonel John and Z Fortune
Enjoy the Derby!!
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