Yesterday's freebie came through going wire to wire and paying $6.80, we'll take it. This meet so far has been a tough one to say the least. I think that trainers are a huge key at Del Mar. You have to be in tune with their moves and intention in specific races.
Today, we will go with a horse in the third race named Tribal Mischief. Let's make it two in a row!
Go to www.vegasturfandsports.com and check out the member packages. There is something for everyone there. If you do not see what you want, email me at vegasturfandsports@gmail.com and let me know what I can do for you.
Thanks for reading.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Del Mar Wednesday July 30th Free Selection
Today's second race is a maiden claiming event and we have one going in here. Our free selection today is Brite Ruler, number 2. This horse should get an easy lead today and be able to go gate to wire. He is listed at 5-2 on the morning line and hopefully the morning line favorite Sunshine In will get overbet and our horse will go off 3-1 or better. We like Joel Rosario taking the call here.
Visit our website at www.vegasturfandsports.com for all of our selections, articles, stats, live sports odds and lines. The NFL season is just around the corner- purchase one of our memberships and be ready to attack the bookies this year! Will will also be offering an NFL/NBA combo package in October. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading.
Visit our website at www.vegasturfandsports.com for all of our selections, articles, stats, live sports odds and lines. The NFL season is just around the corner- purchase one of our memberships and be ready to attack the bookies this year! Will will also be offering an NFL/NBA combo package in October. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Turf Handicapping Methods
Been doing some research lately with horse handicapping methods. I have found that in turf races, with their different pace scenarios and race riding strategies, the approach should be somewhat different than in dirt or synthetic races.
On dirt or synthetic, especially in sprints, horses are pushed from start to finish and gradually the whole field will begin to slow down the longer the race progresses. The winner is usually the horse that slows down at a lesser rate than the others.
On the turf, jockeys are looking to position themselves early to be in place for the all out run from the top of the stretch to the wire. The early pace in turf racing is usually very slow and late speed is what will win. What we should look for are the horses that finish the last portion of the race in under 24 seconds per quarter mile at today's class level or higher. So, in one mile races on the grass, the final quarter should be run in 24 seconds and under. In one mile and one sixteenth races, it should be run in under 30 seconds and in one mile and one eighth races, it should be run in under 36 seconds.
The method to use to find out a horse's final fraction is to note the time at the pace call, usually the three-quarter mark, subtract that from the final time and also subtract one fifth of a second for each length gained or add one fifth of a second for each length lost in the final fraction.
The other major factor to consider in turf races is class. "Class on the grass" still holds true. Classier animals will just outfinish the competition. Horses dropping in class or staying at the same level who have performed well recently on the grass and who can finish fastest will win more than their share of races.
Horses with class advantages that have been running longer than today's race and are proven at today's distance are good bets also. This is due to the stamina building that results from the longer distances. They will still have that closing kick in them and should finish well enough to win in most cases. There is nothing stronger than stamina and determination along with the class that goes with it when looking for a winner on the turf.
On dirt or synthetic, especially in sprints, horses are pushed from start to finish and gradually the whole field will begin to slow down the longer the race progresses. The winner is usually the horse that slows down at a lesser rate than the others.
On the turf, jockeys are looking to position themselves early to be in place for the all out run from the top of the stretch to the wire. The early pace in turf racing is usually very slow and late speed is what will win. What we should look for are the horses that finish the last portion of the race in under 24 seconds per quarter mile at today's class level or higher. So, in one mile races on the grass, the final quarter should be run in 24 seconds and under. In one mile and one sixteenth races, it should be run in under 30 seconds and in one mile and one eighth races, it should be run in under 36 seconds.
The method to use to find out a horse's final fraction is to note the time at the pace call, usually the three-quarter mark, subtract that from the final time and also subtract one fifth of a second for each length gained or add one fifth of a second for each length lost in the final fraction.
The other major factor to consider in turf races is class. "Class on the grass" still holds true. Classier animals will just outfinish the competition. Horses dropping in class or staying at the same level who have performed well recently on the grass and who can finish fastest will win more than their share of races.
Horses with class advantages that have been running longer than today's race and are proven at today's distance are good bets also. This is due to the stamina building that results from the longer distances. They will still have that closing kick in them and should finish well enough to win in most cases. There is nothing stronger than stamina and determination along with the class that goes with it when looking for a winner on the turf.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Del Mar Saturday Free Selection
Today we will release one of our Del Mar plays as a free selection here. In the 2nd race, we are going with the number 2 horse, Dee Rain. He is dropping back down to the level of his last win and is working sharply for his return having last raced on June 8th. Martin Pedroza will ride and we expect a big effort here at around 10 to 1 odds.
For information about all of our Del Mar selections and sports selections including the upcoming NFL season, go to: http://www.vegasturfandsports.com/
For information about all of our Del Mar selections and sports selections including the upcoming NFL season, go to: http://www.vegasturfandsports.com/
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Free Selection From Vegas Turf And Sports
Today's free selection is a baseball total again. The Phillies and Mets square off in an early Thursday game with Moyer and Perez pitching. The total is at 9.5 under -1.30 and we are jumping on the under before it moves to 9 as it has in some places already.
We have two horses going today at Del Mar for our members at http://www.vegasturfandsports.com/. We have had a few nice winners over at the seaside oval since the meet started last Wednesday, and are showing a slight profit with flat bets. Seems that the number one handicapping factor down there is trainer angles and the longer the meet goes, the better we will get at uncovering nice winners at juicy prices.
We have two horses going today at Del Mar for our members at http://www.vegasturfandsports.com/. We have had a few nice winners over at the seaside oval since the meet started last Wednesday, and are showing a slight profit with flat bets. Seems that the number one handicapping factor down there is trainer angles and the longer the meet goes, the better we will get at uncovering nice winners at juicy prices.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Free Selection For Tuesday July 22nd
Today we are releasing one of our baseball plays here as our free selection. We are going with the Twins-Yankees game over 9.5. The line is -1.05. Take the over.
Visit www.vegasturfandsports.com for all of our available handicapping packages. We have several very affordable plans and we are gearing up for the NFL Exhibition season. We have also started the Del Mar meet very strong with three winners the first week out of 7 selections with an average mutuel of $11.80.
Twins-Yankees Over 9.5 minus 1.105
Visit www.vegasturfandsports.com for all of our available handicapping packages. We have several very affordable plans and we are gearing up for the NFL Exhibition season. We have also started the Del Mar meet very strong with three winners the first week out of 7 selections with an average mutuel of $11.80.
Twins-Yankees Over 9.5 minus 1.105
Monday, July 21, 2008
Del Mar Free Selection For Monday July 21st
Today we are taking a longshot in the fourth race. This is a maiden event at one mile on the turf and a wide open affair. Looking for a price with a horse named Trufflesfromheaven, trained by Mike Puype and ridden by Brice Blanc.
These types of races regularly produce nice payoffs and "Truffles" has a nice shot to win this one.
These types of races regularly produce nice payoffs and "Truffles" has a nice shot to win this one.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Del Mar Free Selection For Friday July 18th
This evening's card features the CTBA Stakes for 2-year old fillies and goes as the 7th race. I think that Wesley Ward's trainee Streaming Heat has a big chance here. Ward is very good with 2 year olds and he places her here with strong intentions. She has had four nice works since her maiden win June 5th at Hollywood and her breeding suggests she loves sprinting.
Del Mar 7th Race-#5 Streaming Heat
Del Mar 7th Race-#5 Streaming Heat
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Del Mar Opens With Record Crowd
There were over 43,000 people at Del Mar yesterday on opening day, a new record. I was watching to see how the track was playing and after the first race, I thought that it was going to be like last year. In the 1 mile event on the Polytrack, two horses sped away from the field and burned each other up, allowing the closers to come like a giant wave from the Pacific through the stretch as the two frontrunners tired badly.
I think that it was just too fast an early pace because in the ninth and final race of the day, a maiden claiming race, the winner went straight to the front and led all the way. Closers bias? Not sure yet as one day of racing is not enough to really come to any conclusion. The final times for the races on the Poly were slow, but the early fractions were not too bad. We are going to have to see some more races to acertain whether there is any type of bias present. Of course, we will attempt to take advantage of anything we do notice as far as surface is concerned.
We had a total of five plays yesterday winning with two. Our 4th race selection Carona Time would up dead-heating for the win after a very wide trip into the stretch. Carona Time paid $5.40 to win. The other winner was a good one, Dixie Chatter in the eighth race, the second division of the Oceanside Stakes. Dixie Chatter paid $15.00.
We look to have at least three solid plays a day over at Del Mar. Sign up for a membership package at www.vegasturfandsports.com.
I think that it was just too fast an early pace because in the ninth and final race of the day, a maiden claiming race, the winner went straight to the front and led all the way. Closers bias? Not sure yet as one day of racing is not enough to really come to any conclusion. The final times for the races on the Poly were slow, but the early fractions were not too bad. We are going to have to see some more races to acertain whether there is any type of bias present. Of course, we will attempt to take advantage of anything we do notice as far as surface is concerned.
We had a total of five plays yesterday winning with two. Our 4th race selection Carona Time would up dead-heating for the win after a very wide trip into the stretch. Carona Time paid $5.40 to win. The other winner was a good one, Dixie Chatter in the eighth race, the second division of the Oceanside Stakes. Dixie Chatter paid $15.00.
We look to have at least three solid plays a day over at Del Mar. Sign up for a membership package at www.vegasturfandsports.com.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Del Mar Opens Tomorrow!
I cannot say whether this time of year is better or the day after Christmas when Santa Anita opens is, but I for one am sure happy to see the southern California circuit moving down to Del Mar starting tomorrow. There is no place like the seaside oval, and probably never will be although I have never been to Saratoga so I can't say for sure.
I remember being at Del Mar as a kid and seeing Bill Shoemaker walking by after the races along with Don Pierce, Jerry Lambert among others. Those were great days, the late sixties and early seventies. There was a young rider named Rudy Rosales who was tearing it up back then. Wonder what ever happened to him?
Tomorrow will give some kind of indication as to how the track will be playing after last year's complaints from some of the horsemen about the heat causing problems for their horses. They have a wax element in the Polytrack that begins to melt down with excessive heat. They say they have rectified the situation for this year's meet. We will wait and see. Last year the track was more favorable to closers because the track was very tiring to frontrunners. We will attempt to take advantage of any bias that we can spot when making our selections, and you should be too.
Visit www.vegasturfandsports to sign up for our expert selections for Del Mar from Joey D.
I remember being at Del Mar as a kid and seeing Bill Shoemaker walking by after the races along with Don Pierce, Jerry Lambert among others. Those were great days, the late sixties and early seventies. There was a young rider named Rudy Rosales who was tearing it up back then. Wonder what ever happened to him?
Tomorrow will give some kind of indication as to how the track will be playing after last year's complaints from some of the horsemen about the heat causing problems for their horses. They have a wax element in the Polytrack that begins to melt down with excessive heat. They say they have rectified the situation for this year's meet. We will wait and see. Last year the track was more favorable to closers because the track was very tiring to frontrunners. We will attempt to take advantage of any bias that we can spot when making our selections, and you should be too.
Visit www.vegasturfandsports to sign up for our expert selections for Del Mar from Joey D.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Free Selection Friday
Our freebie did not come through yesterday as the Mets lit it up late sending the game over the total. Our members went 3 for 4 though, making a small profit for the day.
Visit http://www.vegasturfandsports.com/ for more information on signing up for a membership. We offer affordable plans for as little as $20.00. We are plus 18.55 units so far this MLB season and on a 11-4 run since the beginning of July. Overall in 2008 we are at 64.1% winners. A very profitable year so far. We are looking forward to the NFL season and will be announcing our special handicapping packages and prices in the coming weeks for football.
Today, we will release one of our plays here as a free selection. Going with the over in the Cardinals-Pirates game. The total is 9 and the over is minus 1.15.
Visit http://www.vegasturfandsports.com/ for more information on signing up for a membership. We offer affordable plans for as little as $20.00. We are plus 18.55 units so far this MLB season and on a 11-4 run since the beginning of July. Overall in 2008 we are at 64.1% winners. A very profitable year so far. We are looking forward to the NFL season and will be announcing our special handicapping packages and prices in the coming weeks for football.
Today, we will release one of our plays here as a free selection. Going with the over in the Cardinals-Pirates game. The total is 9 and the over is minus 1.15.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Vegas Turf And Sports Free Selection
Today we have four MLB games going over at Vegas Turf And Sports and we will release one here as our free selection. Go to www.vegasturfandsports.com to sign up for one of our handicapping packages to take advantage of all of our selections.
We are on a 7-2 run right now in baseball totals!
Our free selection for Thursday is the Giants-Mets under 8.5 -1.15
Our free selections are hitting at 63.71% and are plus 33.55 units overall since 1/1/2008.
We are on a 7-2 run right now in baseball totals!
Our free selection for Thursday is the Giants-Mets under 8.5 -1.15
Our free selections are hitting at 63.71% and are plus 33.55 units overall since 1/1/2008.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Free Selection For Tuesday From Vegas Turf And Sports
Been very busy over here at Vegas Turf And Sports Lately. We have been overwhelmed with membership sign-ups and going strong in MLB baseball right now, hitting on 4 of the last 5 selections. You can sign up for one of our very affordable plans at: www.vegasturfandsports.com
Tonight we go with the under in the Florida-San Diego game. The total is at 8 under 1.20.
Joey D. will participate in the 2009 Horseplayer World Series at the Orleans Hotel-Casino. Check out the final standings for the qualifyer that got him there on July 4th: http://www.orleanscasino.com/gaming/race-and-sports-book/handicapping-tournaments
We are all proud of him and will be right there with him come Feburary when he takes his shot at the big prize. There is usually about $1 Million bucks in the purse and the winner will get around $300,000, before taxes, of course.
Tonight we go with the under in the Florida-San Diego game. The total is at 8 under 1.20.
Joey D. will participate in the 2009 Horseplayer World Series at the Orleans Hotel-Casino. Check out the final standings for the qualifyer that got him there on July 4th: http://www.orleanscasino.com/gaming/race-and-sports-book/handicapping-tournaments
We are all proud of him and will be right there with him come Feburary when he takes his shot at the big prize. There is usually about $1 Million bucks in the purse and the winner will get around $300,000, before taxes, of course.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Free Selection From Vegas Turf And Sports
We will release a baseball total here today. Going with the over in the Pirates and Brewers game. The total opened at 9 but has been bet up to 9.5. Take the over.
Pittsburgh-Milwaukee Over 9.5 -1.15
Free Selections Record: 70-40-3 Or 63.63%
Pittsburgh-Milwaukee Over 9.5 -1.15
Free Selections Record: 70-40-3 Or 63.63%
Orleans Hotel July 4th Qualifying Handicapping Tournament-What A Day!
Friday the Fourth was a great day for the crew over here. I entered my first "real" thoroughbred handicapping tournament over at the Orleans Hotel. It was the Firecracker Qualifyer and it was very enjoyable and to say the least, very exciting! The entry fee was $100 and the idea was to finish in the top five to receive a free entry into the Horse Player World Series in 2009 where the payoffs can be huge. The format was to select 12 races with a mythical $20 win and $20 place bet and your total mutuel returns were added up to form your point total.
I knew going in that I would need somewhere between 1100 and 1500 points to have a chance so the handicapping strategy is a little different than in your every day approach because you have to look for horses with a good chance of winning at a very nice price. The first race that I selected for the contest proved to be the beginning of an emotional roller-coaster of a day. I used a first time starter with breeding that suggested that he may like the slop over at Churchill Downs where it was raining heavily and he came in and paid $21.40 and $11.40, good for 328 points. I knew if I could get two or three more of those in, I would cash and qualify for the big one. I stuck to my guns for the next hour or so using my original selections which were going off at nice odds, but kept running second and third by small margins mostly with 10 to 1 shots and higher. This was making the rest of the morning frustrating to put it mildly, but those place mutuels were good and they were adding to my point total which had grown to 516.0.
As the afternoon rolled along, some of my initial selections were getting bet down to unacceptable odds so I was looking for something that would get me one more huge point payoff. The sixth at Hollywood was coming up, a maiden race and I noticed that there was a first timer in there with Richard Migliore riding. After seeing that this horse was almost 20-1 and that the rest of the field was beatable due to unimpressive Beyers for the level and some other angles that I use in maiden races, I took a shot with Bella Dancer and "The Mig".
Going 5 1/2 furlongs, Richie broke this horse well from the number two post and gained the lead on the backstretch and she slowly edged clear from the favorite and began to open up in the stretch. What a moment as he drew away to win by almost six lengths. I did not hear anyone else yelling as loud as I was and of course, I was hoping that I was the only one that had her in the contest. The horse had gone off at 23-1 and paid $48.60 to win and $16.80 to place. The contest had a rule as far as capping anything over 20-1 after the first $2.00 of the bet, but it gave me an additional 594.6 points, bringing my total up to 1110.6.
I had one more selection going. It was in the Flawlessly Stakes. The horse was Ginger Pop and she was going up against Lethal Heat and several other exceptional fillies but she looked to me as though she could pull it off at 9-1. She finished second after running a great race behind Starry Pursuit and paid $9.80 to place making my final tally 1208.6.
I wound up finishing third in the contest and qualifying for the World Series, which was my goal for the day. It was a great event, very intense and a great learning experience along with one helluva ride on a wave of emotions. The folks over at the Orleans race book are first class and treated us all very well and the facilities are excellent over there for playing the horses.
See you at the World Series in February of 2009!
Joey D.
I knew going in that I would need somewhere between 1100 and 1500 points to have a chance so the handicapping strategy is a little different than in your every day approach because you have to look for horses with a good chance of winning at a very nice price. The first race that I selected for the contest proved to be the beginning of an emotional roller-coaster of a day. I used a first time starter with breeding that suggested that he may like the slop over at Churchill Downs where it was raining heavily and he came in and paid $21.40 and $11.40, good for 328 points. I knew if I could get two or three more of those in, I would cash and qualify for the big one. I stuck to my guns for the next hour or so using my original selections which were going off at nice odds, but kept running second and third by small margins mostly with 10 to 1 shots and higher. This was making the rest of the morning frustrating to put it mildly, but those place mutuels were good and they were adding to my point total which had grown to 516.0.
As the afternoon rolled along, some of my initial selections were getting bet down to unacceptable odds so I was looking for something that would get me one more huge point payoff. The sixth at Hollywood was coming up, a maiden race and I noticed that there was a first timer in there with Richard Migliore riding. After seeing that this horse was almost 20-1 and that the rest of the field was beatable due to unimpressive Beyers for the level and some other angles that I use in maiden races, I took a shot with Bella Dancer and "The Mig".
Going 5 1/2 furlongs, Richie broke this horse well from the number two post and gained the lead on the backstretch and she slowly edged clear from the favorite and began to open up in the stretch. What a moment as he drew away to win by almost six lengths. I did not hear anyone else yelling as loud as I was and of course, I was hoping that I was the only one that had her in the contest. The horse had gone off at 23-1 and paid $48.60 to win and $16.80 to place. The contest had a rule as far as capping anything over 20-1 after the first $2.00 of the bet, but it gave me an additional 594.6 points, bringing my total up to 1110.6.
I had one more selection going. It was in the Flawlessly Stakes. The horse was Ginger Pop and she was going up against Lethal Heat and several other exceptional fillies but she looked to me as though she could pull it off at 9-1. She finished second after running a great race behind Starry Pursuit and paid $9.80 to place making my final tally 1208.6.
I wound up finishing third in the contest and qualifying for the World Series, which was my goal for the day. It was a great event, very intense and a great learning experience along with one helluva ride on a wave of emotions. The folks over at the Orleans race book are first class and treated us all very well and the facilities are excellent over there for playing the horses.
See you at the World Series in February of 2009!
Joey D.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Free Selection From Vegas Turf And Sports
We have three baseball totals going tonight and two horses over at Hollywood Park. We will release one baseball total here as our free play. If you would like to sign up for a membership to receive all of our selections every day, you can go to www.vegasturfandsports.com and check out our member packages. There is something for everyone starting at $15.00 for a weekend package of baseball selections which includes Saturday and Sunday.
We are looking forward to the beginning of the NFL exhibition season and we will be sending out special offers to current members for the entire exhibition and regular season, so look for that in your email inbox coming in the next two weeks. If you would like to be included in our special offer, send an email to: vegasturfandsports@gmail.com.
Going with the over in the Mets-Cardinals game. The total is at 9 with the over at -1.15.
We are looking forward to the beginning of the NFL exhibition season and we will be sending out special offers to current members for the entire exhibition and regular season, so look for that in your email inbox coming in the next two weeks. If you would like to be included in our special offer, send an email to: vegasturfandsports@gmail.com.
Going with the over in the Mets-Cardinals game. The total is at 9 with the over at -1.15.
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