Turf Handicapping Methods

Been doing some research lately with horse handicapping methods. I have found that in turf races, with their different pace scenarios and race riding strategies, the approach should be somewhat different than in dirt or synthetic races.

On dirt or synthetic, especially in sprints, horses are pushed from start to finish and gradually the whole field will begin to slow down the longer the race progresses. The winner is usually the horse that slows down at a lesser rate than the others.

On the turf, jockeys are looking to position themselves early to be in place for the all out run from the top of the stretch to the wire. The early pace in turf racing is usually very slow and late speed is what will win. What we should look for are the horses that finish the last portion of the race in under 24 seconds per quarter mile at today's class level or higher. So, in one mile races on the grass, the final quarter should be run in 24 seconds and under. In one mile and one sixteenth races, it should be run in under 30 seconds and in one mile and one eighth races, it should be run in under 36 seconds.

The method to use to find out a horse's final fraction is to note the time at the pace call, usually the three-quarter mark, subtract that from the final time and also subtract one fifth of a second for each length gained or add one fifth of a second for each length lost in the final fraction.

The other major factor to consider in turf races is class. "Class on the grass" still holds true. Classier animals will just outfinish the competition. Horses dropping in class or staying at the same level who have performed well recently on the grass and who can finish fastest will win more than their share of races.

Horses with class advantages that have been running longer than today's race and are proven at today's distance are good bets also. This is due to the stamina building that results from the longer distances. They will still have that closing kick in them and should finish well enough to win in most cases. There is nothing stronger than stamina and determination along with the class that goes with it when looking for a winner on the turf.