Handicapping Totals In The NBA Playoffs

Since the beginning of 2008, we have a record of 52-30-3 with the free selections here at Vegas Turf And Sports, mostly picking totals on NBA games. The other night, we had the Pistons game under 186.5 and that game was played almost exactly the way we figured it would be with the Pistons hammering the Magic on defense and going on to take the series moving them into the Eastern Conference Finals. Final total on that game was 177, right where we had it.

We have noticed that when looking at some of these playoff matchups, there are some very different factors that go into trying to figure where the total on a game should be. For example, last night's games were Cleveland at Boston, and Utah at the Lakers. My number on the Boston game was in the low 170's with a total listed at 176.5 which may normally be a play on the under. The way the Celtics have played lately, we just could not pull the trigger on under in that game. Of course, they won a hard-fought victory last night, but the game went over the total. Looking at boxscores the next morning, it is easy to see what one of the major factors is during the playoffs and that is the number of free throws that are taken. Fouls seem to be a major factor much more so during the playoffs. Fouls stop the clock and give a team the opportunity to score points at the same time, which is going to affect the total on a game, for sure.

In the second game last night, the Jazz and the Lakers shot 70 free throws!! They made 58 of the 70 and the game only went over by a few points. Our number on that game was right around 200, but I made a note that these two teams had been at the line too many times during this series to warrant a play on the under. Hard to figure beforehand how the game will be called though, in other words, how much physical play will the referees allow or not allow?

The intensity of the playoffs brings more fouls, allowing for points scored with the clock stopped and this must be considered one of your handicapping factors when handicapping totals in the NBA playoffs.