So far this Playoff season, we have done pretty well with a record of 8-5-1. One thing I have noticed is that it takes a little more good fortune on your side to come out with a win. Once each series has begun, the linemakers adjust their numbers and no matter how good you are at handicapping the games, it just plain takes some grace from the handicapping gods to be successful. With totals, we are basically crunching numbers and if the two teams play to their trends and averages, our number will be very close to the final score. We also factor in other things like home-away, defensive strategies of the different teams, etc.
We know that over time, everything will trend toward the average, but in the Playoffs, there is so much more intensity on both sides of the ball, and much more at stake. For example, the Boston-Cleveland game last night had a total of 184 opening and was bet down to 182.5 by tip-off time. My numbers on that game were right below the line, so it was a no-play. The Celtics just about shut LeBron James down last night along with the rest of the Cavaliers who shot 30.7% from the field. The pace of the game was slightly lower than expected, but it was the terrible shooting percentage for both teams which is partly attributed to good defense, that caused the game to wind up 76-72.
There is no way to predict shooting percentage, of course. But we usually come very close to possessions per game, and with that, over time we will win more than we lose and that is the what the goal of being a successful handicapper is all about. It only takes about 53% winners betting the same units on each game to show a profit, and we are at over 63% for this NBA season. We will just keep plugging away with what we are doing and it's nice to know that over the long run we will come out ahead of the books.
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