Tomorrow is the running of the 134th Kentucky Derby, the day that everybody is a horseplayer. Our selection in Colonel John. He is coming off a powerful performance in the Santa Anita Derby in which, after closing in the stretch to win against some pretty slow fractions- he wasn't passing tired horses, he galloped out strong after the race and I think he will bring a huge effort tomorrow.
Big Brown is the morning line favorite but I do not like his post at all. The owners and trainers decided to take the 20 hole when they were limited to choosing from 18,19, or 20. Their thinking was that at least Big Brown would not have anybody outside of him in the run to the first turn. I think his problems will begin early as there is some good early speed breaking right next to him in the form of Gayego and Cowboy Cal. Unless Big Brown can clear the field and get all the way over to at least the 2 or 3 path, he is going to have one wide trip, lose tons of ground and expend alot of energy before he even reaches the backstretch.
Colonel John has tactical speed and can be sitting just off the pace or 6 or 7 lengths behind the leaders depending on the way the race plays out. I like that fact that the veteran Corey Nakatani is riding, he should have him in a striking position turning for home. As long as he avoids traffic trouble, he should be right there at the finish. Much has been said about the fact that Colonel John has not raced on dirt yet as all of his starts have come on synthetic surfaces, but I think he will adapt just fine and turn in a huge performance tomorrow.
Going to also bet an exacta box on Colonel John and Z Fortune
Enjoy the Derby!!
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